Oslo Economics has, on behalf of the Norwegian Communications Authority (Nkom), analyzed the broadband needs of Norwegian end-users in 2030, as well as the technologies that can meet those needs.
The analyses are based on macro forecasts using aggregated data, as well as micro forecasts based on the usage of services by different user groups. The micro forecasts are limited to three stylized user groups: i) households with low broadband needs, ii) digital households, and iii) small businesses. Based on the micro forecasts, an assessment is made of whether different broadband technologies are expected to meet the broadband needs of these user groups in 2030.
These forecasts predict that fiber will meet the needs of all user groups, while hybrid fiber/coaxial cable-based broadband (HFC) at its current technological standard is expected to meet the needs of households with low broadband needs, as well as the lower estimate for digital households and small businesses. Future implementation of new technological standards for HFC and the extent of adoption of AR/VR technology are expected to influence the extent to which HFC will meet the needs of user groups with higher demands. In the event of future implementation of newer technological standards and upgrading of HFC networks, hybrid fiber will also be expected to meet the needs of all user groups. Given the characteristics of current technology, fixed wireless broadband (FTB) meets the requirements for upload and download speeds for households with low broadband needs and the digital household in the lower estimate. In a forward-looking perspective, FTB based on 5G can also meet the needs of user groups with higher demands.