On behalf of the Norwegian National Institute of Public Health (NIPH), Oslo Economics has assessed the economic impact of alternative strategies of vaccination against COVID-19. The work was carried out in collaboration with a reference group, consisting of NIPH’s Geir Bukholm and Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, Steinar Holden, University of Oslo; John-Arne Røttingen, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (The Research Council of Norway); Vegard Hole Hirsch, Ministry of Finance and Geir Stene Larsen, The Norwegian Directorate of Health.
We have assessed the impact of each of the strategies on reducing disease and death, infection rate, and in relation to healthcare capacity.
The modeling is complex but still gives a simplified picture of the expected real life effects. The strategy of vaccinating high risk groups first, where the oldest are prioritized, seems to be the best strategy to limit the burden. The probability of death increases significantly with age, thus the effect for older groups is dominating the effect for younger groups.
The strategy of vaccinating high risk groups first, with an internal prioritization of the oldest, may be combined with a regional strategy and later also on subgroups with a high contact rate. If we do not prioritize the population in the most affected areas and where contact is particularly high, costly infection control measures must be continued longer than strictly necessary. More complex strategies will be modeled later on.
Regardless of strategy, rapid distribution and high adherence is of major importance.
