On behalf of the Ministry of Transport and Communications and the Ministry of Finance, Oslo Economics and Terramar have conducted a quality assurance of The Norwegian Public Roads Administration and Jernbaneverket’s concept study on alternatives for transportation by road and rail between Voss and Arna.
The concept study recommends ” Concept 5 Large reduction in rail and road – combined solution”. The concept is stated to have an investment cost of 33.4 billion and is in the concept study estimated to have a net benefit of minus 23.4 billion. Of the concepts that are considered, the recommended concept is considered second worst when it comes to priced effects, and worst based on non-priced effects. In achiving goals set, the concept is ranked best.
Our assessment is that several of the concepts analysed in the concept study responds well to the identified needs, goals set and requirements. For example some alternatives provides, a significant reduction in travel time, and in this way contribute to the road’s benefit. In addition, all the concepts contribute to a reduction in the number of traffic accidents. The analysis includes a calculation of reduced traffic injuries and climate emissions. By our calculations, none of concepts have positive net present value , and the negative net present value is not offset by non-priced effects. Our recommendation is therefore the reference alternative.
Our analysis shows that parts of the road projects can be economically profitable without tolls, and geographically limited measures in and around the densely populated areas can be economically profitable.
For more information about the mission , please contact Jostein Skaar.
